Business
When lightening hit, we do not change the laws of nature Welcome to extremistan or the Non linear/or the complex Domain Since the world has become increasingly more unpredictable, due to globalization and internet-we are witnessing the following problems- which pervade across board. The difference between anecdote and evidence The difference between knowledge and BS The difference between an observation that is fake check and something you can generalise How do you know something is safe, a turkey is fed for 1000 days by a butcher and everyday confirms to the turkey statistic department, the turkey accounting department, the turkey membership site, marketing department, Federal reserve Department– that the butcher loves the turkey with increasing statistical evidence until November, two days before thanks giving, It is never a good idea to be a turkey. The turkey will get a big surprise (the unexpected, the random) by becoming dead meat. This is by the way is in nutshell – the illustration of the consequence of inferring from the observable- or generalizing from the known to the unknown. My point here is that, we can probably solve the problem, by figuring out in which domain these errors are consequential and in which domain these errors are not consequential. So we are going to make a separation between two domains with this classical experiment: The Mediocristan and extremistan The Mediocristan is caracterise by the collection of regular,yes it is the average that dominates.In technical terms is,if you take randomnly select 1000 people and you place on the scale in term of weigh.We can figure out quickly the average weigh of the total-right.Now add to that sample -that the heaviest person you can think of in the world.Key question how much of the total the exception meaning represent to the total? Answer: well 0.3% in another words the means which here is the average weigh is closed to the to the exception.so from here we derive the properties.This is by the way call the law of large number which define as when your sample becomes large,no single observatio can impact the total-further we draw out the properties. Without this law statistics and social science won’t exist.If you are earn money per,or dentist,or massage therapist etc... you are in mediocristan?Why because you can not store your work and scale it.You have to there to perform and it is the average of your work that dominates But? --Now Extremistan Take the randomnly same selected sample of 1000 people and instead of weigh,let us take wealth- and add to the sample the richest person alife today.Bill Gates- How much of the total would he represents? Answer: 99.9999999% of the total,therefore the total is completely irrelevant and what count here is the exception- namely the outlier,the rare that dominates the most. You can from here see why with globalisation and internet the world is schifting rapidliy to exteremistan where the winner take all effect. Some example,take google,youtube control more than 80% of traffic online – facebook twiter are the behemoth in term of traffic in social media. If you are author or expert who creates an online courses and it becomes a best seller like harry potter,just one day represent your entire earning and change your financial for better or worst.by the way you don’t have to be there to perform – and even dead your stuffs continue to sell. Now here is where lies the major problem: The procrustean bed of pseudo experts,entrepreneurs,aspiring entrepreurs and investors- in this era is- they are most likely of conflating absence of evidence for evidence of absence.Just a turkey who is fed for 1000 days by the butcher and two days before thanks giving is surprised to become a dead meat. --- In Business life,take most recent world membership successful and renown sites compete.com -which by the way was an Online Competitive Intelligence specialised in a web traffic analysis service – guess what compete.com went bust by december 2016- main reason,there became turkey by falling victim observing continuos of profits and benefits from when variation were compressed and before they realised that – they were sitting on tons of dynamite. This is by the way the consequence of infering from the observable. What about most online busineeses outhere who are victim of self deception and hide it to themselves? How many membership site do you have outhere? By the way trades and industries are at their best when they are not yet generally understood to be profitable. When seen by all so, they fall off; because many from resorting to them, the competition prevents them from being any longer lucrative. In all things, it profits to be up bedtimes We should look to substance, not to appearance and surface of things. Yet it is incredible how much favour smooth words will bring you among men. The reason I believe to be that is everyone seems to deserve more than is really his due, and in consequence is vexed – if he sees you do not value him as he things he merits. Here are the three big away of my thoughts 1 – We are wired to favour the visble,the tangible,the well narrated,storiesand anecdotes and we scorn the abstract,the opaque,the unknown and this the reason why optionalityprofits have been created to 2 – Most pseudo experts outhere are most likely to mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence in another mistaking the extremistan for mediocristan. 3- What matter in is not how long successeful or unsuccessful you have been – but the magnitude or the cumulative of the rare. 4- Under complexity,the legal and the ethic don’t macth anymore and a lot of aspiring achievers are victmed for pseudo experts and con artsist are they to take advantage of you.Beware.This is the reason optionatlty profit is in cration to