Business
For Millennia, Europeans thought that all swan were white- because everywhere they looked, swans were always white. Till In year 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh saw a black swan in Australia and sure enough one single observation can destroy millennia of confirmation – likewise Take the story of the Turkey “For those of you who haven listen or watch, I hugely recommend you as soon as possible to give it a try. If you are employee and after 40 years, you are lay off the street. You have a negative black swan- you have the Tsunami of 2003 in east Asia. Another negative Black swan. The black swan can also be positive: For example: Take the invention of the computer. The internet which by the way was previously a military application is to use as a mean for communicate and business purposes. Consider the Viagra came from the hypertension drug.Aspirine made for headache, later it turns out to be fibber reducer and guess what today it is use as blood thinner. The black Swan is a way of saying, Just because you never see something `happens, doesn’t mean it won’t; meaning sometimes – even highly improbable happens, in a more simplistic way the black swan event is something that happens as result of our incomplete knowledge of understanding the world The black swan is about robustness of certain class of events we cannot compute or predict Take the case membership sites. Steadiness which makes you very fragile-since your risk are hidden.So you can lose not only because of the competitor, but because a business may mutate into something else- moreover the The fundamentally error which is supposedly risk free approach- the back Swan event. So what can be done? Put yourself in situations where you can catch a ride of positive black swans by not being a wall but a windmill that turn volatility,variation,error,the unknown ,randomness ,time,stressor,option into profits. For example: Become an artist, a writer, book publisher, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, biotechnology with a scalable product. These professions by definition belong to extremistan –where it is the exception that dominate. If you are selling or trading your time for money (for example: as employee, dentist, masseur therapist etc...).You are waiting in vain for such a break.Here these professions belong to mediocristan where it is the collection of the regular that counts. This is the reason why we here in optionality profits help entrepreneurs, aspiring entrepreneurs’ investors, and decision-makers by protecting you from sinking and by providing a systematic approach under incomplete information and incomplete understanding by building systems where mistakes can occur – without threaten the system and most importantly recycle and use as fuel for improvement. After all to make systems robust, all risks must be visible and out in the open—fluctuat nec mergitur (it fluctuates but does not sink) goes the latin saying. Just as a robust economic system is one that encourages early failures (the concepts of “fail small” and “fail fast”),) than having a risk free approach- meaning base on prediction. “Lastly Man’s error are his portals of discovery” James Joyce The central insight here is that with world that has become more complex, due globalisation and the internet- black swan events(rare events) 1- are more frequent today ,2- When its happens it is vastly more consequential than we can imagine