Miscellaneous
More from Ryan:https://twitter.com/ryanraysrhttps://shor.by/insidethewarroomConnect with Ellen:https://twitter.com/EnergzdEconomyPaul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaulUndersea gas pipeline rupture causes fire in Gulf of Mexicohttps://apnews.com/article/mexico-fires-business-e6e053384af21242722f2f3fc1acb27d- PEMEX fault, not “capitalism”- Mexico actually the first country to nationalize its subsoil resources- PEMEX doesn’t maintain infrastructure well and chronically underfundedExplosion rocks Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan gas fieldhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/explosion-rocks-caspian-sea-near-azerbaijan-gas-fieldSaudi oil minister highlights need to extend Opec+ dealhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2231047-saudi-oil-minister-highlights-need-to-extend-opec-dealSaudi Arabia pushes back on UAE opposition to OPEC+ dealhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-energy-minister-pushes-back-uae-request-over-baseline-oil-output-says-2021-07-04/- Iraq committed to OPEC+ deal, doesn’t want a price war- Favors extendedPaul Hickin with S&P Global Platts @GramscianPaul- OPEC and OPEC+ — different situation from Saudi/Russia spat last year- When UAE first raised baseline issue, prices were only in $40 range. Different scenario now- UAE made more sacrifices than other members- UAE looking to go up to 5 mbpd by 2030- Is it realistic to change the baselines? Would be hard is only some baselines change.- Prices have surged a bit - perhaps likelihood of no new deal? Or an OPEC fudge?- China’s oil storage: little bit of a black box- Has gone from 50 days cover in imports 5 years ago to 100 days of imports. Puts China on par with IEA countries, which have to cover 90 days- Shows how important China views oil, still.- 2 million bpd in refining/petrochemical capacity to come online- If China wants to play a role as a swing consumer, it could do this using its oil stocks. - China buys when crude is cheap, less keen when crude is higher, but still buy a lot because of domestic demand. Oil security means won’t draw down too far into reserves.