In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Skymet Meteorology & Climate Change, analyses the August–September monsoon outlook and what it means for the rest of the season.

After a weak start in June, the monsoon recovered well in July, but the season still carries a 12% rainfall deficit. Skymet forecasts 92% of normal rainfall for August and 89% for September, keeping both months close to normal.

However, the strengthening El Niño could put pressure on August rainfall. Can a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) offset its impact? Why could rainfall activity shift towards East and Northeast India, and what could this mean for Western, Central and Southern India?

The episode also looks at Kharif sowing, rainfall deficits and the challenges ahead for rain-fed agriculture.

Listen to the full episode for an expert assessment of how the monsoon could shape up in the final two months of the season.