News
Key Points: Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy: Constrain Iran’s malign activity Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq Deter further Iranian aggression Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion Future attacks will allow Iran deniability Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq Kim Jung Un is watching this closely China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted